Model-based scenarios are scenarios relying on a mathematical or numerical model that is consistent with historical or observed evolutions. This consistency is usually obtained through the calibration of models which consists in estimating the value of parameters underpinning the model by fitting the observations to the outputs induced by the model.
Predictive scenarios, such as forecasts, can respond to the question ‘What will likely happen?’. Predictive scenarios include status quo, business as usual or most likely scenarios.
Explorative scenarios describe the possible and can respond to the question ‘What can happen?’. They aid in a process to develop robust strategies, which can survive several kinds of external developments.