The Net Present Value Scenario
This scenario maximizes the net present value of all the future profits aggregated among all fleets π(t)
This scenario indentifies efforts ef(t) to maximize the Net Present Value of rents.
Economic Scenario (NPV): Ecologically, Economically and Food Security Unviable
The economic scenario seeks to ensure the maximization of the present (discounted) total profit at the aggregated fleet level. It is characterized by the highest effort multiplier, particularly for fleets 1 and 3 (Fig.1e and g) for which the specific multipliers reach their maximum values, while the activity of the two other fleets (2 and 4) is significantly reduced especially during the first period. As a consequence, the profitability constraint is not satisfied for these last two fleets — as shown in Fig. 1e and g.
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Through NPV, the fishery yields the highest net present value. However this positive economic outcome is achieved at the detriment of the ecological viability of the system . In particular the species richness falls to 8 (cf. Fig. 2a). In addition to the 4 species that were already getting extinct under SQS, two additional species are projected to disappear under NPV: fat snook and bressou catfish. Finally the high harvesting levels induced by this scenario allow to satisfy the food security constraints in 48 out of 100 runs .
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